The Pulse

 

U.S. Consumers  Go On Christmas Spending Spree
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Pulse Measures

 Consumer Confidence Index

 Canada:83.6 up

 US:54.1 up

 Business Confidence Index:

 Canada:56.7%  up

 US:56.9 unchg.

 Growth Rate GDP:

 Canada:2.18% unchg.

 US:2.5% unchg.

 Jobless Rate:

 Canada:7.6% unchg.

 US:9.8% unchg.

 Inflation Rate:

 Canada:2.4% unchg.

 US:1.2% unchg.

 Bank Rate:

 Canada:1.0% unchg.

 US:0.25% unchg.

 Prime Rate

 Canada:3% unchg.

 US:3.25 % unchg.

 Conventional Mortgage:

 Canada:5.44% unchg.

 US:4.27% unchg.

 Housing Starts:

 Canada:168K

 US:545K

 Exchange Rate

 1 CDN$ =$0.99 US$ dn

 Gold

 $1396.19 US per ounce up

 Silver

 $29.57 US per ounce up

 Oil

 $89.11 US  up

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RetailPulse specializes in the analysis of consumer demand and the various economic, political and environmental factors that influence purchase decisions.  

  

 

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They're Back!


 

It looks like it will be a very, very green Christmas after all!

 

Not only were All Stores sales up 9.2% for November, but the Consumer Confidence Index  soared 4 points to 54!

 

Non-e-store Retailers...fancy name for e-commerce, also got in on the gold rush and saw sales increase by 18.1%.  The U.S. also had its best Cyber-Monday  ever with sales cresting $1 billion dollars for the first time in online history. Thanksgiving day saw a 29% increase over 2009 non-travel spending  pointing to a very robust lead-up to Christmas for retailers.

 

So here is the good news by retail sector!

  • Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores 15.9% Up
  • Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores 15.5% Up
  • Clothing and Accessories 9.6% despite early discounting.Up
  • Health and Personal Care Stores increased growth to 7.3%Up
  • General Merchandise Stores were up 4.2% Target outpaced the industry with a 5% increase.Up
  • Department stores performance was marginal at best at 1%. However, Dillards and JCPenny who target the middle class were up 8 and 9 % respectively.Up
  • Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores growing sales by only 2.6% reflecting the troubles in the housing markets.Up
  • Electronics and Appliance Stores grew only 2.1% plagued to by the troubled housing market and cannibalization of sales from other channels.Up
  • Sales in luxury products, perfume and jewerly grew  5.5% echoing general retail trends .Up

 

Consumers may have been cautious in the early goings of November, not taking the bait of the various enticing ealy season promotions. The results of November point to a very poistive Christmas retail season.

 

Not only are these results great for U.S. retailing, it augers well for the entire economy. While QE1 and QE2 may have been of dubious benefit to the U.S. economy, the American consumer has finally come off the sidelines and entered the game with helmet and spikes strapped on tight, ready to play!

 

Final Receipt

 One of the challenges that U.S. retailers will face for the first time in several years is the likelihood of a shortage of inventory to meet  consumer demand.

While growth will be positive for the final quarter of the year, it is likley that early discounting will see margins squeezed when it comes to year end reporting. 

All of this is not only good news for U.S. retailing and the American consumer, but it is even a better sign for the Canadian Christmas Retailing Season.
 
Happy Retailing!
 
Bryan Moir
Senior Economist
RetailPulse

 
Christmas is the season when you buy this year's gifts with next year's money.  ~Author Unknown
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